Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 53.4E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/24 12 UTC: 18.9S/52.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/25 00 UTC: 20.0S/50.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 21.1S/49.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 22.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY. THE CENTRE HAS PASSED AT 50KM SOUTH-EAST OF TROMELIN ISLAND THE 01/23 AT 1100Z, THE MSLP RECCORDED WAS 1009HPA AND THE MAXIMUM WIND (10MIN AVERAGE) WAS ONLY 16KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL TO RETFER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITHOUT ANY GOOD MONSOON OR TRADE WIND SURGE IN LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP CONVECTION, EVEN IN PHASE WITH THE LLCC, HARDLY INTENSIFIES AND CONSOLIDATES DURABLY. NONE AVALAIBLE NWP INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. THEY GLOBALY MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, MORE OR LESS CLOSE TO MALAGASSY COATS AT MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.