Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 52.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1007 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/24 18 UTC: 18.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/25 06 UTC: 20.1S/50.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/25 18 UTC: 21.7S/49.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/26 06 UTC: 23.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 25.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 27.5S/48.5E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL ORGANIZED, VERY CIRCULAR, BUT REMAINS AT A WEAK INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NEUTRAL, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, NEUTRAL TO RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WITHOUT ANY GOOD MONSOON OR TRADE WIND SURGE IN LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP CONVECTION, EVEN IN PHASE WITH THE LLCC, DOES NOT INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE DURABLY. OVER THE MASCAREIGNE'S AREA, DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, PERIPHERICS CURVED BANDS, LOCATED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN CLOCKWISE FLOW AND TRADE WIND FLOW, SHOULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS. NONE AVALAIBLE NWP MODEL INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. THEY GLOBALY MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, MORE OR LESS CLOSE TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES AT MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.