Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 52.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 00 UTC: 19.6S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 24H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.9E, MAX WIND=020KT. 36H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 22.6S/49.0E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 24.5S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT. 60H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 26.5S/48.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 28.5S/50.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5 SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH NEUTRAL TO RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE DISPITE THE SST ARE OF THE ORDER OF 28°C. EQUATORWARD, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURGE IS WEAK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF MADAGASCAR AND POLARWARD THE HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED FAR IN THE SOUTHEAST DON'T PERMIT A GOOD TRADE WINDS SURGE. THERE IS NO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW, REQUIRED FOR A DURABLY CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS ALSO DISORGANIZED AND FLUCTUATING. CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS CLOCKWISE FLOW AND TRADE WINDS FLOW MAINTAINS AN UNSTABLE AND STOMLY WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION'S ISLANDS. THE DEEPEST CLUSTERS EVACUATE PROGRESSIVELY MAURITIUS ISLAND AND WILL CONCERN REUNION'S ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS COULD OCCUR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS CIRCULATION WITHOUT INTENSIFY IT SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS AND TO DRAW CLOSER THE EASTERN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES WHERE HEAVY RAINFALLS COULD OCCUR NEXT NIGHT AND TOMORROW. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEME DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.