Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 51.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 12 UTC: 20.0S/49.8E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 21.4S/48.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 23.8S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT. 48H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 26.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 29.3S/51.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 31.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES CONFIRM THE PERSISTANCE AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM 08 IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) ; THE LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT DO NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE. SURROUNDGING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESES CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, BEFORE VERRING SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE MALGASY COASTLINE, MAINTAINING STORMY WEATHER OVER THIS AREA, A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.