Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4S / 50.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/25 18 UTC: 20.8S/50.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/01/26 06 UTC: 21.8S/49.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 22.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 23.5S/48.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 24.3S/47.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 24.9S/47.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES CONFIRM THE PERSISTANCE AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THE SYSTEM 08 IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) ; THE LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT DO NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE. SURROUNDGING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESES CONDITIONS. NWP MODEL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR THE EXPECTED TRACK. ARPEGE TROPIQUES FORECAST IT TO TRACK RATHER QUICK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH AND THEN TO EVACUATE IN THE EXTRATROPIACL AREA AT MEDIUM RANGE. ECMWF FORECAST IT TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS AND THEN IT WOULDN'T EVACUATE IN THE TROUGH DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.