Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 50.6E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/26 00 UTC: 21.4S/50.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 22.1S/49.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 22.6S/49.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 22.6S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 22.2S/48.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 21.3S/47.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=3.0- BOLOETSE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) ; THE LLCC REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT DO NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURGE AND THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO WEAK DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT FOR THE EXPECTED TRACK AND A LOT OF OPTIONS MAY POSSIBLE.