Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/26 12 UTC: 22.9S/50.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 23.6S/49.8E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 23.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 23.6S/48.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 22.7S/47.7E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 22.0S/46.1E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD DIVERGENCE) AND ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED DURING LAST HOURS INTO A LARGER CDO. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS MAKE IT SLOW DOWN THEN TRACK WESTWARDS TO NORTHWESTWARDS NORTH TO 24S, LANDING OVER MALAGASHY COAST AT THE END OF THE FORCAST PERIOD.