Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 0600 UTC : 22.6S / 50.7E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/26 18 UTC: 24.0S/50.9E, MAX WIND=045KT. 24H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 24.2S/50.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 36H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 24.1S/49.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 48H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 23.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 23.5S/46.5E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 23.4S/45.0E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5-, CI=3.5 BOLOETSE HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY DURING LAST NIGHT (MICROWAVE IMAGERY AMSRE 2158z AND TRMM 0154Z), AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARDS OUTFLOW CHANNEL). SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH. BOLOETSE SHOULD TRACK TOAWARDS MALAGASY COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.