Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 1200 UTC : 22.9S / 50.7E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 00 UTC: 23.9S/50.8E, MAX WIND=040KT. 24H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 24.2S/50.3E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 24.2S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 23.8S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 23.7S/46.7E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 24.0S/45.5E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0, CI=3.5 LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED AND ERODED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND 24 HOURS ; ECMWF DISSIPATES IT AFTER ITS LANDFALLING OVER MADFAGASCAR, UKMO MAKES A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, AND ARP MAINTAINS IT QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE ITS EVACUATION WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.