Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/26 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3S / 50.8E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 06 UTC: 23.8S/50.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 23.8S/51.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 23.9S/50.6E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 24.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 26.4S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 27.7S/47.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=3.0 LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED (CF MIWROWAVE IMAGERY OF SSMI AT 1502UTC AND OF WINDSAT AT 1433UTC). SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO NOT EVACUATE THE SYSTEM WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND 24 HOURS ; ECMWF DISSIPATES IT AFTER ITS LANDFALLING OVER MADFAGASCAR, UKMO MAKES A LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, AND ARP MAINTAINS IT QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE ITS EVACUATION WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.