Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 12 UTC: 22.6S/50.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 23.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 24.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 25.4S/48.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 27.0S/47.4E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 28.3S/47.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+, CI=3.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED (CF TRMM 37GHZ AT 1826UTC) BUT INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A FLUCTUATING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONSTRAINT NOW BY A MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH (4 TO 5 HPA HIGHER THAN AVERAGE), MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH BUT DISAGREE BEYOND. IT COULD THEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A NEW TROUGH AND TO SHIP SOUTH OF THE MALAGASY COASTINE.