Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7S / 51.0E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 MOINS /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/27 18 UTC: 22.4S/50.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 22.4S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 22.9S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 24.0S/48.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 25.3S/47.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 26.4S/46.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+, CI=3.0- LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED, BUT CONVECTION BEGINS TO UNDERGOES MODERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. SURROUNDING PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, MSLP IS CORRECTED TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THESE CONDITIONS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO MAKE IT TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TEMPORARILY REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH IN LOW AND MEDIUM LEVEL. IT COULD THEN TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A NEW TROUGH AND SHIP SOUTH OF THE MALAGASY COASTINE.