Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 50.9E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 00 UTC: 22.8S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 23.2S/49.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 24.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 25.4S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 27.0S/46.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 72H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 28.8S/46.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ AFTER HAVING SLIGHTLY TRACKED NORTHEASTWARDS, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CURVED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING LAST HOURS. THE LLCC STARTS TO BE EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WICH UNDERGOES AN ENHANCING SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SINCE LAST NIGHT. AFTER THIS TRANSIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH WICH IS TEMPORARILY PRESENT SOUTH THE SYSTEM AND WICH SOULD RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LOW SOULD EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH, AND WEAKEN DUE TO AN ENHANCING SOUTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.