Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/27 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1S / 50.1E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 06 UTC: 22.2S/49.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 22.6S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 23.8S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 25.4S/46.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 29.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY TRACKED WESTWARDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTRE, DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS HOWEVER WELL DEFINED. TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH WHICH IS TEMPORARILY PRESENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, THE LOW ONLY SHOULD EVACUATE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND KEEP ON WEAKENING, DUE TO AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.