Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 50.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 750 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 12 UTC: 21.0S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 22.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 23.5S/46.9E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 25.2S/45.7E OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 27.0S/44.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 28.5S/42.5E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY TRACKED NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING AND HAS BECOME MODERATE OVER THE LAST HOURS. TRACKING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WHICH ARE QUICKLY SHIFTING EASTWARDS, THE LOW ONLY SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, CROSSING MADAGASCAR TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH.