Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 49.6E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/28 18 UTC: 21.4S/48.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 22.0S/47.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 23.4S/46.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 24.9S/45.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 26.2S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 27.6S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- ; CI=2.5- UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LLCC IS CURRENTLY PARTLY EXPOSED, DAYTIME METEOSAT IMAGERY CONFIRM LAST NIGHT MICRO-WAVE DATA (TRMM0141Z, AMSU 0158Z AND SSMIS 0426Z). THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW FLUCTUATING AND RATHER DISORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MALGASY COASTLINE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS, IN THE VICINITY OF MANANJARY, BEFORE CROSSING MADAGASCAR, TRACKING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE NEXT TROUGH.