Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 49.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/29 00 UTC: 21.6S/48.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/29 12 UTC: 22.2S/47.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 23.7S/45.7E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5- ; CI=2.0 THE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISORGANIZED THE SYSTEM EX-BOLOETSE : THE LLCC IS NOW LARGELY EXPOSED AND IS NO MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ; FEW CONVECTIVE REMNANTS ARE DETECTED NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WEAK AND SCATTERED. THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MALGASY COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, IN THE VICINITY OF MANANJARY, BEFORE CROSSING MADAGASCAR TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DISSIPATING GRADUALLY.