Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9S / 48.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/29 06 UTC: 20.6S/48.0E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 20.7S/46.8E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING NORTHWESTARDS TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS. THE CENTRE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MANANJARY DURING THE NIGHT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS, HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE CENTER DURING LAST HOURS DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE (AND ALSO DUE TO A LIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). LES PLUIES DEVRAIENT TOUCHER UNE LARGE PARTIE CENTRALE DE MADAGASCAR. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK, BUT STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS MAY BE OBSERVED OVER SEAS AND DURING THE LANDSCAPE. THIS WEAK CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48H OVER LAND.