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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/8/20052006
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE)

2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 46.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/29 18 UTC: 21.3S/45.6E OVERLAND.
24H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 21.9S/44.5E OVERLAND.
36H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 22.5S/43.5E OVERLAND.
48H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 23.8S/42.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 24.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 24.9S/39.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW HAS MADE LANDFALL LIGHLY NORTH OF MANANJARY LAST NIGTH, AND IS NOW LOCATED FAR INTO LANDS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED AT THE END OF NIGTH, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS, ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER A WIDE CENTRAL AREA OF MADAGASCAR.

THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCROSS MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND TO EXIT OVER THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL.