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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/8/20052006
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE)

2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 46.0E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 100 SO: NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/01/30 00 UTC: 21.6S/44.9E OVERLAND.
24H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 22.3S/43.6E OVERLAND.
36H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 23.5S/42.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 24.1S/41.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 24.1S/39.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 23.8S/37.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW IS NOW LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF MADAGASCAR.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED NEAR THE RESIDUAL LOW, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS IMPORTANT OVER THE MOST PART OF THE ISLAND NORTH TO 23S, GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLS.

THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCROSS MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND TO EXIT OVER THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL.