Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/29 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0S / 45.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/30 06 UTC: 21.1S/44.0E OVERLAND. 24H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 21.4S/42.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 22.3S/40.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 23.7S/39.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 23.2S/38.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 22.7S/36.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-BOLOETSE RESIDUAL VORTEX KEEPS ON TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTION NOW SHOWS A STRONG BUT SCATTERED INTENSITY, GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND. NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TOMORROW, THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TOMORROW EVENING. OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD UNDERGO A FAVOURABLE MONSOON FLOW, OVER 28/29 DEGREES SST, BUT A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.