Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/8/20052006 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/30 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 44.5E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/30 12 UTC: 20.0S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 20.0S/41.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 20.5S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 21.0S/38.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 21.0S/37.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 21.5S/36.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-BOLOETSE RESIDUAL VORTEX IS ENDING ITS CROSSING OF MADAGASCAR (IT COULD BE CURRENTLY OVERSEA AGAIN...), THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ABOUT THIS ESTIMATED AND APPROXIMATIVE POSITION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENED OVER MADAGASCAR BUT KEEPS ON OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM TODAY AND TO ORGANIZE A LLCC. THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A FAVOURABLE MONSOON FLOW, OVER 28/29 DEGREES SST, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT FIRSTLY, A WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; FEW MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT MEDIUM OR LONG RANGE.