Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 43.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/30 18 UTC: 18.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/31 06 UTC: 19.1S/40.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 19.6S/39.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 20.2S/38.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 20.5S/36.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 21.1S/36.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 RECENT INDOEX AND MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LLC SEEMS TO BE OVERSEA AGAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT (OVERSEA'S OUTSIDE LIKELY NORTH OF MORONDAVA). DUE TO ITS CROOSING OVER MADAGASCAR, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED NOW SO THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE ABOUT ITS ESTIMATED AND APPROXIMATIVE POSITION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEAKENED OVER MADAGASCAR AND CONCERNS ONLY BESALAMPY-MAHAJONGA AREA BUT KEEPS ON OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND IS CONCERNED ABOUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY). AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND TO ORGANIZE A LLCC. THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A FAVOURABLE MONSOON FLOW, OVER 28/29 DEGREES SST, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT FIRSTLY, A WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; FEW MODELS DEEPEN THIS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY AT MEDIUM OR LONG RANGE.