Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7S / 42.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/31 00 UTC: 17.7S/41.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 18.5S/40.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 19.6S/39.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 20.4S/38.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 21.0S/36.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 21.5S/36.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 SEVERAL CENTERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE MAIN. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER SEA AGAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT AFTER CROSSING MADAGASCAR. DUE TO THIS CROSSING OVER LAND THE CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED AND IS VERY APPROXIMATIVELY LOCATED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FLUCTUATING BUT LOCALLY MODERATE. IT CONCERNS THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL EAST OF 38E BETWEEN 13S AND 23S BUT KEEPS ON OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES MAINLY NORTH OF MORONDAVA. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE POLARWARD HELPED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF 25S. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING WESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT MEDIUM RANGE IT WOULD SHIP SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO BUT ECMWF NWP MODEL FORECASTS A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE ON AND AFTER THE 02/02. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.