Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/31 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 40.4E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/31 18 UTC: 19.4S/39.8E, MAX WIND=040KT. 24H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 19.7S/38.7E, MAX WIND=045KT. 36H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 20.4S/37.8E, MAX WIND=050KT. 48H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 21.2S/37.4E, MAX WIND=055KT. 60H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 22.0S/37.3E, MAX WIND=060KT. 72H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 23.0S/38.0E, MAX WIND=065KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM REINTENSIFIES REGULARLY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THANKS TO A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT ; IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD (HELPED POLEWARDS BY WESTERLY WINDS PRESENT SOUTH OF 25S), AND SSTS ARE BEYOND 27C. MONSOON AND TRADES WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INCREASING CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, AND TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.