Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/31 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1S / 38.5E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/01 06 UTC: 20.8S/37.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 21.8S/37.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 23.0S/38.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 23.9S/39.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 24.9S/41.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 25.6S/43.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM REINTENSIFIES REGULARLY OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THANKS TO A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT ; IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD (HELPED POLEWARDS BY WESTERLY WINDS PRESENT SOUTH OF 25S), AND SSTS ARE BEYOND 27C. MONSOON AND TRADES WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INCREASING CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, AND TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.