Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/01 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0S / 38.6E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 060 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 20.6S/37.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 21.0S/37.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 21.3S/37.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 21.6S/37.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 22.1S/38.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.6S/38.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- LAST MICRO-WAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY (TRMM AT 1701UTC AND SSMI AT 1822UTC) SEEMS TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MORE NORTHEASTERN THAN LOCATED IN THE PAST RSMC BULLETIN ISSUED AT 1800UTC. CENTER IS RELOCATED BUT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATED. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS BETTER ON THIS MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY AND BOLOETSE KEEPS ON REINTENSIFIYNG REGULARLY. LAST QUIKSCAT SWAT AT 1455UTC CONFIRMS THIS TREND IN SPITE OF MAXIMUM WINDS ARE OVERESTIMATED UNDER THE CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD (HELPED POLEWARDS BY WESTERLY WINDS PRESENT SOUTH OF 25S), AND SSTS ARE BEYOND 27C. MONSOON AND TRADES WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INCREASING CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, AND TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.