Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0S / 38.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 PLUS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 19.3S/37.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 19.9S/37.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 20.6S/37.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 21.4S/38.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.3S/39.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.7S/41.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=3.0- IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, AND SSTS ARE AROUND 29°C. MONSOON AND TRADES WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LIGHTLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, AND TRACK SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.