Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 38.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 PLUS /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 070 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 18.9S/37.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 18.9S/37.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 20.0S/37.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 21.1S/38.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.2S/39.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 23.2S/40.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM AS BEEN RE-ANALYSED AT A LIGHLY WEAKER INTENSITY ACCORDING TO LAST DATA (HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS, QUIKSCAT SWATH BADLY RESOLVED, INORGANISED CONVECTION ON MICRO-WAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY). DEEP CONVECTION HARDLY ORGANIZES EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE, PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT SHOULD REMAIN ALMOSTATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS, INTENSYING SLOWLY, THEN CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND.