Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/01 AT 1800 UTC : 19.0S / 38.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 19.2S/38.5E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 19.5S/38.8E, MAX WIND=040KT. 36H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 20.2S/39.2E, MAX WIND=045KT. 48H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 21.3S/39.9E, MAX WIND=050KT. 60H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 22.5S/40.9E, MAX WIND=055KT. 72H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/42.4E, MAX WIND=060KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND IS SLOW TO INTENSIFY. TRMM IMAGERY 1605Z ALLOWS TO LOCATE THE CENTRE RATHER PRECISELY. BOLOETSE SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STEERING MID LEVEL RIDGE.