Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 0000 UTC : 19.3S / 38.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 19.6S/38.9E, MAX WIND=065KT. 24H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 20.1S/39.3E, MAX WIND=075KT. 36H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 21.0S/39.8E, MAX WIND=080KT. 48H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=075KT. 60H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 23.5S/41.5E, MAX WIND=070KT. 72H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 24.7S/42.6E, MAX WIND=060KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- BOLOETSE HAS QUICKLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE 6 LAST HOURS, AND THE EYE IN EMBRYO THAT COULD BE DETECTED ON MW IMAGERY 37 GHZ (SSMI 1749Z) EXISTS NOW IN IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS AND SHOULD KEEP THIS DIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST.