Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 20.0S/38.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 20.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 20.8S/39.2E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 22.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 25.2S/42.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- LATEST TRMM MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (0016Z) CONFIRMS THE NICE BOLOETSE LOWER LAYER ORGANIZATION ; NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION DID NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATE AROUD THE CENTRE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO START TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS ; AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP THIS DIRECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE DEEPENING COULD GO ON OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.