Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.5E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 20.0S/38.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 20.2S/39.1E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 21.7S/40.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.5S/44.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.4S/46.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- LATEST VISIBLE CANAL METEOSAT IMAGERY ANIMATIONS REVEAL A FORMING EYE, NOT ENTIRELY CONSOLIDATED YET. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF ITS CURRENT POSITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS APPROXIMATELY, BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST.