Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 39.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 966 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 21.2S/39.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.3S/40.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 23.9S/41.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 25.6S/43.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 28.3S/45.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 31.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0+ AND CI=4.5 THE BEGINING OF ACCELERATION SOUTHEASTWARDS STARETED DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT AS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED DURING LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWN AGAIN, WITH AN EYE WICH HARDLY CONSOLIDATES (BANDING EYE). BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.