Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.2S/43.4E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.