Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 1200 UTC : 21.4S / 40.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 84 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.6S/41.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 25.7S/44.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 27.9S/46.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 30.1S/49.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 32.3S/52.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR UP TO 18 TO 20 HOURS RANGE.