Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 42/8/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 41.7E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 180 50 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 24.1S/43.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.4S/44.4E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.3S/46.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.4S/48.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 33.0S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- IR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE EYE STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS THUS LEADS TO CLASSIFY BOLOETSE AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DURING PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM SPEEDED UP, IT KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. AS REVEALED BY AQUA 1057Z, TRMM 1553Z AND F13 1619Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY, CONVECTIVE LINES ALREADY AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS SHALL KEEP ON OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN), WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. BOLOETSE IS STILL A SMALL SIZE CYCLONE, ITS INTENSITY CAN FLUCTUATE RAPIDELY. ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLEN, BUT SOUTH OF 25S, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO THE WEAKEN GRADUALLY.