Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 43/8/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2S / 42.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.7S/43.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.4S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.4S/49.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 35.0S/55.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 37.0S/61.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ ; CI=5.5- BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTIVE LINES HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR FOR FEW HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN), WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. BOLOETSE IS STILL A SMALL SIZE CYCLONE, ITS INTENSITY CAN FLUCTUATE RAPIDELY. ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE, BUT SOUTH OF 25S, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO THE WEAKEN GRADUALLY.