Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 44/8/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7S / 42.9E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.6S/44.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.9S/45.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 30.9S/48.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 33.9S/53.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 36.6S/59.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 38.9S/67.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ; CI=5.5- BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND IS LOCATED AT THIS TIME WITHIN 100 KM SOUTHWEST OF TULEAR WHERE 10MN WINDS UP TO 40KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70KT WERE OBSERVED AT 0500UTC . CONVECTIVE LINES HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR FOR FEW HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN), WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. BOLOETSE IS STILL A SMALL SIZE CYCLONE, ITS INTENSITY CAN FLUCTUATE RAPIDELY. ACCORDING TO RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINS TO BE LIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL. SOUTH OF 25S, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO THE WEAKEN GRADUALLY.