Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 45/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 43.9E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 954 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 300 SO: 270 NO: 270 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.9S/45.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.5S/46.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.7S/49.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 36.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 38.8S/64.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 12 UTC: 41.4S/70.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.0+ BOLOETSE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY LAST NIGHT AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (CF INFRARED INDOEX IMAGERY BETWEEN 1900UTC AND 2000UTC). SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OUT OF PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION (CF SSMIS F16 AT 0438UTC IN 85GHZ AND 37GHZ CHANNELS). SINCE 0700UTC, EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED AND DVORAK ANALYSIS IN INFRARED AND VISIBLE CHANNELS GIVE T=4.5. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CROSS AT THIS TIME AT ABOUT 20 KM WITHIN THE MALAGASY COASTLINE NEAR ANDROKA AREA WHICH COULD BE CONCERN WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA .