Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 44.7E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 28.4S/46.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 31.4S/48.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 34.0S/52.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 36.8S/59.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 38.6S/67.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 41.7S/74.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW VISIBLE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS GOING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA .