Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 48/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/05 AT 0600 UTC : 28.8S / 46.5E (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 31.5S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT. 24H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 33.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 35.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 36.7S/60.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 37.5S/64.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/08 06 UTC: 38.0S/68.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ CI=4.5- THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO UNDERGO THE BEGINNING OF A CAPTURE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ERODES BUT REMAINS IN PHASIS WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (SSMI 0320Z). LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH CENTRED OVER MASCARENES AND A POLAR TROUGH, THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EVACUATES TOWARDS EXTRATROPICALE LATITUDES.