Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 53/8/20052006 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 37.7S / 58.6E (THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 42.2S/68.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/02/07 12 UTC: 45.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/02/08 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW IS FILLING UP AS IT IS EVACUATING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER COOL WATER (20°C) IN A BAROCLINC ENVIRONMENT STRONGLY SHEARED, TOWARDS THE POLAR TROUGH WITH WHICH IT SHOULD MERGE NORTH OF KERGUELEN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CIRCULATION OF THIS EXTRTROPICAL LOW IS ASYMETRIC, ELONGATED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. STRONG WINDS PERSIST FAR FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE OWN SPEED OF THE LOW. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ON THAT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED IN THE ACK BULLETIN (FQIO20FMEE).ING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.