Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 55.2E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/19 18 UTC: 18.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/02/20 06 UTC: 19.6S/55.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 20.2S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 21.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 21.7S/53.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 22.5S/52.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 LATEST RADAR AND MICROWAVES IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MESO-VORTEX IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RAIN-FREE CENTRAL AREA WITHIN THIS NUCLEUS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT THIS STAGE , THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.