Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/9/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 56.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 00 UTC: 19.6S/57.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/20 12 UTC: 20.7S/58.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/21 00 UTC: 21.2S/57.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/21 12 UTC: 21.6S/56.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/22 00 UTC: 22.0S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 12 UTC: 22.5S/54.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED LAST NIGHT WITH THE MAINTAIN OF A CLUSTER SINCE 0000UTC. THIS LOW PRESENTS AN UNUSUAL CONFIGURATION. LATEST REUNION'S ISLAND RADAR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVES (TRMM AT 0556UTC AND SSMIS F16 AT 0447UTC) INDICATE A MESO-VORTEX IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RAIN-FREE CENTRAL LOOKING LIKE AN EYE-LINE FEATURE WITHIN A WELL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE LOW LEVELS, SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO BE ESTIMATED WITHOUT NEW INDICATIONS. THERE IS NOW A STRONG SUSPICION THAT WINDS OF THE MESO-VORTEX HAS REACHED THE SURFACE AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING A MIDGET VERY LITTLE BUT WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. DUE TO THE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON BAD RESOLVED QUIKSCAT SWAT, NWP ANALYSE BADLY THIS CIRCULATION AND DISAGREE FOR THE SCENARIO. IN THIS CONDITIONS, UKMO NWP MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER ONE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS WITHIN 24HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS MORE CLOSER OF THE MSACAREIGNES ISLAND WITHOUT DEEPEN STRONGLY.