Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/9/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/20 AT 0000 UTC : 19.1S / 57.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 12 UTC: 19.8S/57.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/21 00 UTC: 20.6S/57.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/21 12 UTC: 21.2S/57.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/22 00 UTC: 21.8S/56.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/22 12 UTC: 22.1S/53.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/23 00 UTC: 22.6S/51.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE, THEN WEAKEN UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN, VEER SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.