Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/20 AT 0600 UTC : 19.2S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 19.5S/59.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 20.0S/60.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 20.6S/60.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 21.5S/60.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/22 18 UTC: 22.3S/59.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/23 06 UTC: 23.0S/58.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. RADAR FIXES FROM LA REUNION INDICATE LOSS OF ORGANIZATION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE SINCE 0449Z. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR, CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE IMAGERY THANKS TO A CIRRUS BOW. WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY THROUGH WINDSHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO LOWERING OF STEERING LEVELS, BACKING SOUTHWARDS THAN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS.