Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/9/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/20 AT 1200 UTC : 19.4S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/21 00 UTC: 19.6S/58.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/02/21 12 UTC: 20.1S/57.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/02/22 00 UTC: 20.3S/55.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/02/22 12 UTC: 20.5S/53.5E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DUE TO THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS BARELY AVAILABLE. DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR, THE SYSTEM HAS BRUTALLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOURS ; THE VERY SMALL LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION, LOCATED FAR IN THE EAST OF THE CENTRE. THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL STEERING AND TRACK WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE.