Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/9/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/20 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 57.8E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 030 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 19.2S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 19.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 19.8S/54.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/02/22 18 UTC: 20.2S/53.4E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- DUE TO THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL SCALE. UNDERGOING THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED AT ABOUT 80 NM WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND IS UNDERGOING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING. BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST, RESIDUAL VORTEX HAS STOPPED AND TURNED BACK WESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DISSIPATE BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS. DUE TO THE NIGHT CYCLE, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOUD EXIST TEMPORARILY NEAR THE CENTER.