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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/9/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2006/02/21 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 57.4E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/21 12 UTC: 18.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/02/22 00 UTC: 18.3S/56.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2006/02/22 12 UTC: 18.1S/55.4E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=2.0
LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT ABOUT 130 NM WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND IS UNDERGOING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING.
BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST, RESIDUAL VORTEX HAS STOPPED AND TURNED BACK.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND DISSIPATE BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION